> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.statsdigest.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Week 4 Puts San Francisco's Passing Game Against the One Part of Denver's Defense Still Working - URL: https://www.statsdigest.com/49ers-passing-vs-broncos-pass-defense-week-4-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-01T23:44:07.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-01T23:44:07.000Z - Description: San Francisco's pass offense is historically hot, but Denver's defense is strong exactly where Purdy throws - Author: Bill Seifert - Tags: 49ers, Broncos, Brock Purdy, EPA, NFL analytics, Week 4 The 49ers host the Broncos in week 4 of the 2026 season, and through three games apiece the matchup has an odd shape: the one phase both teams have clearly held up in is the same one — the pass game. The unit everyone would point to as Denver's obvious weakness, the run defense, is the one San Francisco has shown the least interest in testing. Three games is three games; nothing here should be read as a settled 2026 ranking. But set against what these two teams actually did from 2022 through 2025, the early-season shapes are distinct enough to spell out. ## Table of Contents - San Francisco's passing game, through 3 games - Denver's pass defense is the thing that didn't break - Denver's run defense is a different story - Why that matters less than it should ## San Francisco's passing game, through 3 games Through three games, Brock Purdy has thrown 83 dropbacks for 789 yards, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception, producing **+0.615 EPA per dropback** — which is also the team's pass offense figure as a whole, since almost every pass play this season has run through him. That's not a sustainable rate; nothing at +0.6 ever is. What makes it worth a look is where it sits against San Francisco's own recent history, which was already solid: | Season | SF pass EPA / dropback (offense) | | ------------------ | -------------------------------- | | 2022 | +0.176 | | 2023 | +0.255 | | 2024 | +0.114 | | 2025 | +0.125 | | **2026 (3 games)** | **+0.615** | The 2022–2025 range ran roughly +0.11 to +0.26\. Three games into 2026, San Francisco is running more than double the top of that range. It's also not a one-game spike — the week-by-week trend has climbed, not faded: | Week | Overall offense EPA/play | Pass EPA/play | Rush EPA/play | | --------- | ------------------------ | ------------- | ------------- | | 1 (at LA) | +0.179 | +0.142 | +0.221 | | 2 | +0.460 | +1.060 | −0.068 | | 3 | +0.490 | +0.849 | +0.048 | The passing numbers are carrying the offense; the rushing split has bounced between slightly positive and negative. Through three games San Francisco has run 83 pass plays against 77 run plays — a close to even split, not a pass-heavy scheme shift, just a passing game that's performing well above its own baseline. ## Denver's pass defense is the thing that didn't break Here's the quieter part. Denver's overall defense looks middling through three games — **+0.045 EPA allowed per play** across 199 snaps. But that number blends two very different units. Against the pass specifically, Denver has allowed **−0.065 EPA per dropback** this season. Set against its own recent seasons, that's not a departure: | Season | DEN pass EPA / dropback allowed | | ------------------ | ------------------------------- | | 2022 | −0.064 | | 2023 | +0.051 | | 2024 | −0.095 | | 2025 | −0.112 | | **2026 (3 games)** | **−0.065** | Three of the last four seasons — 2022, 2024, 2025, and now the start of 2026 — have Denver allowing negative pass EPA/dropback, i.e. performing above a league-average pass defense; 2023 was the outlier year. Given the small sample, "consistent with recent form" is the fairer read here than anything definitive. ## Denver's run defense is a different story The other half of Denver's defense has been a mess. Through three games, the Broncos are allowing **+0.202 EPA per rush** — by a wide margin the worst mark in their own recent window: | Season | DEN rush EPA / rush allowed | | ------------------ | --------------------------- | | 2022 | −0.025 | | 2023 | −0.023 | | 2024 | −0.084 | | 2025 | −0.028 | | **2026 (3 games)** | **+0.202** | Every season from 2022–2025 had Denver's run defense solidly negative (good). The 2026 figure is not just worse, it's a different category of result. Whether that's three weeks of real regression or three weeks of small-sample noise is a fair question — but it's been consistently poor, not a one-game blip against one bad matchup. ## Why that matters less than it should Which brings us to the strange logic of Sunday's matchup. The textbook approach against a defense that's solid versus the pass and historically bad against the run is to lean on the run. San Francisco isn't built to do that. Their run game has actually been efficient on a per-play basis — **+0.078 EPA per rush** this season — but it's the smaller share of the offense (77 of 160 offensive plays through three games, essentially a 52/48 split). The passing game isn't just more frequent, it's been dramatically more productive, and that's where San Francisco's offensive identity currently sits. Denver, meanwhile, has gotten little from its own offense: **−0.057 EPA per play** across 164 plays, with Bo Nix at 100 dropbacks for 605 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, running at **−0.070 EPA per dropback**. That forces Denver's defense to carry the game — specifically the pass defense, since San Francisco has given no real indication it intends to test the run front that's actually struggling. So the honest framing: this is a matchup between the two things that have held up for three weeks for each team. San Francisco's passing game is running at a level that's almost certainly going to come back to earth. Denver's pass defense is performing in line with its last two seasons. Which one gives first — and whether San Francisco ever bothers to probe the part of Denver's defense that's actually broken — is the game worth watching.