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# What's Actually Driving the Raiders' 2-0 Start?
- URL: https://www.statsdigest.com/raiders-2-0-run-defense-week-2-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-23T15:31:30.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T15:31:30.000Z
- Description: The Raiders are 2-0, but it's a revived run defense — not the offense — driving the wins.
- Author: Bill Seifert
- Tags: Raiders, EPA, run defense, pass rush, NFL, Pete Carroll

Las Vegas is 2-0\. Two games in, the offense is still running at a net-negative EPA. What's actually inverted, in a way none of the last four Raiders seasons predicted, is the defense, and specifically how it has handled the run.

## Table of Contents

1. Two wins, an offense still running a deficit
2. The defense inverted, and the run stop is why
3. What I can't yet confirm
4. What I'd want to see next

## Two wins, an offense still running a deficit

The Raiders beat Miami 27–13 in Week 1 and the Chargers 26–14 in Week 2 — comfortable scores. EPA/play tells a less flattering story about the offense across those 121 plays:

- Week 1 offense: **−0.039 EPA/play** on 64 plays
- Week 2 offense: **−0.096 EPA/play** on 57 plays

That's roughly **−0.066 EPA/play** combined — still below break-even both weeks. For reference, here's where the Raiders' offense sat across the last four full seasons:

- 2022: **+0.00** EPA/play
- 2023: **−0.097**
- 2024: **−0.143**
- 2025: **−0.215**

So the offense through 2 games is a clear step up from 2025's −0.215 disaster, but it hasn't crossed into positive territory — it's sitting closer to 2023 levels than to anything resembling "fixed."

On pass plays specifically (non-sacked attempts), the offense actually looked solid: **+0.013 EPA/play** in Week 1 (30 attempts) and **+0.193 EPA/play** in Week 2 (31 attempts) — a strong Week 2 by that measure. That means the drag on the offense's overall number is coming from the run game and/or the sacks, not the passing downs themselves.

## The defense inverted, and the run stop is why

The 2022–2025 Raiders defense was mediocre-to-bad by EPA/play allowed, and never good:

- 2022: **+0.064** EPA/play allowed
- 2023: **−0.060**
- 2024: **+0.021**
- 2025: **+0.024**

Through 2 games in 2026:

- Week 1: **−0.236 EPA/play allowed** on 50 plays
- Week 2: **−0.261 EPA/play allowed** on 62 plays

Combined, that's roughly **−0.25 EPA/play allowed** — an inversion of every recent season except 2023, and a considerably larger negative number than even that. Two games is a small sample for a defense-wide number like this, but the specific driver is worth isolating: the run defense.

Rush EPA allowed by game:

- Week 1 vs Miami: **−0.142 EPA/rush** on 18 carries, 4.11 yards/carry, 74 rush yards allowed
- Week 2 vs the Chargers: **−0.488 EPA/rush** on 32 carries, 3.97 yards/carry, 127 rush yards allowed

Combined across the 50 carries the Raiders have faced, that's roughly **−0.36 EPA/rush allowed**. Compare that to the run-defense baseline of the last four seasons:

- 2022: **+0.005**
- 2023: **−0.065**
- 2024: **−0.041**
- 2025: **−0.036**

A combined −0.36 is a different order of magnitude than anything in that four-year window — opponents have gained yards on the ground against Las Vegas (4.0-ish per carry both weeks) without those carries doing much for their offense's overall value, which is close to the definition of a defense winning on early downs without necessarily stuffing the box for a loss on every snap.

The other visible piece is the pass rush. The Raiders have sacked opposing quarterbacks 5 times on 32 dropbacks in Week 1 (15.6%) and 3 times on 30 dropbacks in Week 2 (10.0%) — a combined **12.9%** sack rate on 62 dropbacks. That's well above the last four full-season rates:

- 2022: 4.4% (27 sacks / 620 dropbacks)
- 2023: 7.5%
- 2024: 6.4%
- 2025: 6.6%

## What I'd want to see next

Two games, two wins. A defense that's been average-at-best for four straight years has opened the season allowing roughly −0.25 EPA/play, driven in large part by a run defense performing at a level well outside its 2022–2025 range, plus a sack rate nearly double the recent baseline.

Before I'd call this a rebuilt unit rather than a hot two-game stretch, I'd want to see the run-defense number hold up closer to league-average territory over a larger sample, get a real answer on whether the sack production is concentrated in one player or spread across the front, and see the explosive-play rate actually checked against 2026 data rather than assumed unchanged. None of that is available yet at two games. What is available says the defense, not the retooled offense, is the reason Las Vegas is 2-0 — but it's worth being honest that "why" beyond run defense and a higher sack rate is still an open question.