The Fightnomics MMA book implies that Arman Tsarukyan will beat Dan Hooker in their upcoming lightweight UFC bout. The market shows an implied win probability of 83% today on Nov 21.

But first, let’s examine Tsarukyan’s advantages. The market is basing his 83% win probability based purely on grappling (3.25 TD avg vs 0.73) and age (29 vs 35). Of course, the market prediction is weighted significantly toward his elite grappling.

Hooker has advantages in pace (5.03 vs 3.79 SLpM) and reach (75” vs 72”). But the market is betting that Tsarukyan’s major grappling advantage trumps everything else. Tsarukyan is six years younger, but age doesn’t matter as much for grapplers (vs. that of strikers).

The market has factored all this in and views Dan Hooker’s pace differential of just under 25% and a 3 inch reach advantage as meager at best. This is in light of Islam Makhachev’s total domination over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 last weekend.

The market predicts that Dan Hooker won’t be able to use his reach to activate his higher volume of striking. The fight is to be on the ground - with Tsaruykan in the most advantageous positions - for all five rounds. Does the title-contending elite grappler absolutely nullify Hooker's striking?