> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.statsdigest.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # What Three Weeks of the 2026 Season Actually Tells Us - URL: https://www.statsdigest.com/what-3-weeks-of-2026-actually-tells-us/ - Published: 2026-09-30T18:51:40.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-30T18:51:40.000Z - Description: Three weeks in, only a few 2026 EPA trends—like Minnesota's defense—look statistically real. - Author: Bill Seifert - Tags: NFL, EPA, 2026 NFL season, Vikings, 49ers, Cowboys defense ## Table of Contents 1. What we think we know after three weeks 2. The biggest movers against their 2025 baselines 3. Believe it or not yet --- ## 1\. What we think we know ### 1) Minnesota's defense has been dominant, and it has been dominant for three straight weeks. The Vikings' defensive EPA/play through 200 plays is **−0.181** — best in the league by any measure of the 32-team pool. What matters is not the pooled number but the split: they were at −0.175 in week 1 (67 plays), −0.125 in week 2 (69 plays), and −0.246 in week 3 (64 plays). All three weeks are strongly negative. Compare that to 2025, when Minnesota's full-season defensive EPA/play was **−0.101** across 1,016 plays — already a good defense. The 2026 line is a step better, and it hasn't been carried by one game. That's the shape of a real signal at a small sample: stability, not magnitude. Caveat, and it belongs in the same sentence: Minnesota's own offense has been *bad* (−0.119 EPA/play across 165 plays), which means opponents have often been playing from ahead and running the ball. Some of that pretty defensive line is opponent posture, not talent. ### 2) San Francisco's passing offense is running at a level it did not reach in 2025. Brock Purdy, through 83 dropbacks, has 789 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a **+6.28 CPOE**. The 49ers' offensive EPA/play sits at **+0.357** — first in the league — with pass EPA of **+0.616**. In 2025 the same team ran a **+0.061** offensive EPA/play across 1,180 plays and a pass EPA of **+0.125**. This is not a small move at a small sample; this is a very large move that has grown week-over-week. Week 1: +0.18 EPA/play. Week 2: +0.46\. Week 3: +0.49\. But three weeks and 83 dropbacks is still 83 dropbacks. The pattern is real; whether the level holds is what the next month decides. ### 3) Dallas's defense has been the worst unit in football through three weeks — and it was terrible last year too. Dallas has allowed **+0.191** EPA/play across 190 defensive plays — dead last of 32\. Pass EPA allowed: **+0.408**. Those numbers are grotesque, but they are also not a departure. In 2025 Dallas finished with a **+0.167** defensive EPA/play across 1,027 plays and a pass EPA allowed of **+0.221**. The 2026 three-week figure is worse, but it is worse in the same direction. This is the "consistent with the last three years" finding — not a new story, a continuing one, and week 3 (67 plays, +0.596 pass EPA allowed to Baltimore) is the newest data point in a pattern that predates it. ### 4) Miami's pass defense is showing the same shape as Dallas's, and it fits their 2025 trajectory. Miami's defensive EPA/play through 160 plays is **+0.162**, second-worst in the league. Their pass EPA allowed is **+0.482**. In 2025 Miami finished at **+0.088** defensive EPA/play and **+0.126** pass EPA allowed across 1,015 plays. So Miami is worse than last year, but 2025 was already the wrong direction. The three-week sample here is arguing for continued decline more than a sudden collapse. ### 5) Seattle's defense held for two weeks, then leaked in week 3. The Seahawks' pooled defensive EPA/play is **−0.156** (177 plays) — third in the league. But the split matters: week 1 was −0.110 (67 plays vs. New England), week 2 was **−0.325** (47 plays vs. Pittsburgh), and week 3 was **−0.080** with a **+0.117** pass EPA allowed (63 plays vs. Washington). The pooled ranking is being carried by weeks 1 and 2\. It is exactly the situation the sample-size discipline exists for: a season-to-date ranking that looks authoritative and reflects two games. Seattle was −0.123 defensive EPA/play across 1,244 plays in 2025, so the underlying prior is strong, but the week-3 slippage is worth flagging rather than smoothing away. ### 6) Green Bay cannot run the ball, in a way that is entirely new. The Packers have a **−0.410** rushing EPA/play across their non-pass plays — the worst rushing offense in the league by a wide margin, and they have run only 48 non-pass plays out of 180\. In 2025 Green Bay was **−0.015** on the ground across 1,063 offensive plays. That's not a small move; it's a total inversion. Whether it survives one healthy back returning is another question, but the current split is unrecognizable from last year. --- ## 2\. The biggest movers against their 2025 baselines Here the question is not "who is good" but "who moved," and by how much across three weeks. **San Francisco offense: +0.061 in 2025 → +0.357 through 160 plays in 2026.** A \~+0.30 EPA/play swing. Pass EPA jumped from +0.125 to +0.616\. This is the largest positive offensive move in the sample, and it has grown weekly rather than fading. Purdy's +6.28 CPOE says the ball is being placed better than an average QB would place it, which is a stickier signal than raw yards. **Dallas offense: +0.098 in 2025 → +0.175 through 178 plays in 2026.** Improvement, driven almost entirely by the pass (+0.311 vs. +0.162 last year). The rush game is at −0.039\. Dak Prescott's early return of production is real, but Dallas playing catch-up behind their own defense inflates pass volume and, therefore, pass EPA opportunity. That is a real opponent/game-script distortion to name. **Tampa Bay offense: −0.009 in 2025 → −0.193 through 177 plays.** The single largest negative offensive move in the league. Pass EPA has gone from −0.026 to −0.293 across 112 pass plays. Three weeks; the shape held in a week-3 loss to New Orleans as well as two prior games. Whether this is Baker Mayfield or the pieces around him is a question the sample can't answer yet. **Minnesota offense: −0.116 in 2025 → −0.119 through 165 plays.** Essentially unchanged. This matters because the *defense* is the story here — the offense is, so far, running last year's line. Minnesota being 2–1 despite a bottom-third offense is a defensive story. **Arizona defense: +0.056 in 2025 → +0.123 through 167 plays.** Pass EPA allowed is at **+0.398** — a very ugly early number, up from +0.150\. This is a real move against a mediocre baseline, but the sample is small and week-to-week stability was not something I was able to characterize in the time available; treat it as a flag, not a finding. **Detroit defense: −0.011 in 2025 → +0.149 through 215 plays.** A meaningful decline, and Detroit has faced more defensive plays than any team in the league (215) which suggests they've been on the field a lot. Whether that's the defense creating short possessions or the offense doing so is not something I can separate from the pooled number alone. --- ## 3\. Believe it or not yet The point of this pass is to judge **evidence strength**, not to guess future records. - **Minnesota's defense is elite.** *Believe it, provisionally.* Stability across three weeks + a strong 2025 baseline (−0.101 EPA/play, 1,016 plays) = a prior that reinforces the current sample. What would kill the read: one of the next two weeks landing above 0.0 on defensive EPA/play against an average offense. - **San Francisco's passing game is a top-of-league unit.** *Believe it, but hold the ceiling loosely.* +6.28 CPOE and a growing weekly trend are real. But 83 dropbacks is 83 dropbacks, and 2025 was only a middle-of-the-pack pass offense (+0.125 pass EPA over 1,180 plays). What would confirm: a month at +0.30 pass EPA or better. What would kill it: CPOE regressing to league average and pass EPA/play halving. - **Dallas's defense is broken.** *Believe it.* This is the strongest early-season update in the piece precisely because it doesn't require an update — it's a continuation. The 2025 baseline (+0.167 defensive EPA/play, 1,027 plays) was already the worst-decile shape, and 2026 is worse in the same direction. Not evidence of a new problem; evidence that last year's problem persists. - **Seattle's defense is top-tier.** *Not yet.* The pooled −0.156 sits on 177 plays, and the week-3 pass EPA allowed (+0.117) is the first crack. Prior (−0.123 in 2025 over 1,244 plays) supports the read, but I'd want two more weeks below −0.05 before treating this as a settled unit rather than a good defense that had two very good matchups. - **Green Bay cannot run.** *Not yet, mechanically.* −0.410 rushing EPA/play across 48 rush attempts is a very small denominator on a metric with high variance. The direction is clear; the magnitude almost certainly is not. What would confirm: another 60–80 attempts at anything below −0.15. - **Tampa Bay's offense has fallen off.** *Not yet.* −0.193 EPA/play over 177 plays is a real move against a −0.009 baseline, but three games is exactly the horizon at which a bad quarterback stretch and a genuine offensive decline are indistinguishable. Another two weeks resolves this one either way. ---